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The relationship of True Money Supply to the standard and alternative economic indicatators in the Czech republic
Lukáš, Matěj ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Šťastný, Daniel (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to test, whether the Austrian school monetary aggregate - True money supply (TMS) reaches a better mutual relationship with national income and inflation than the aggregate M2 used by the mainstream economics. The purpose of this test is the fact that according to the austrian economists TMS is supposed to be based on a coherent theoretical background, whereas M2 was created by using statistical methods. In order to reach a coherent comparison, monetary aggregates were tested not only with the standard aggregates -- GDP and CPI representing inflation, but also with the alternative aggregates coming from the theory of the Austrian school -- Gross Domestic Output and Composite Price Index. These aggregates were analyzed by the correlation, regressive and vector autoregressive analysis (VAR models). The results did not show a better relationship between TMS and the remaining macro-aggregates. However, the theoretical background of a indicator is crucial for the austrian economists, that is why this test does not prove any impropriety of the indicator but only it's worse practical utility.
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How True is the True Money Supply?
Vostal, Ondřej ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Hurník, Jaromír (referee)
The Austrian economists hold that the so called true money supply is theoreticaly superior to the classical M1, M2 and M3. Using the data from the Czech Republic I verify in my thesis whether it really could be the case. The true money supply is the sum of the amount of cash and goods (cash equivalents) which could be redeemed during a period not exceeding the horizon specified at a fixed rate known in advance in cash. In addition, most market participants have to think that the amount of cash available for the purpose of such exchange is unlimited. Several true money supplies, that differ in the horizons of the included cash equivalents, are constructed based on the Czech National Bank (ČNB) data spanning the years from 2002 to 2012. For the comparison of the true money supplies and the M an elementary model is used based on the equation of exchange. The main finding is that the indicators don't considerably differ. Thus it seems that the true money supplies and M are practically the same. For all the indicators, however, the estimates of the coefficient of the model are significantly different from the quantitative theory of money predictions. That's why the results are to be interpreted with caution.
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True Money Supply
Dufek, Michal ; Písař, Pavel (advisor) ; Czesaný, Slavoj (referee)
This thesis deals with the real money supply (True Money Supply). Monetary aggregates (M1, M2, M3) used in mainstream economics is that, in many respects inaccurate and therefore unsuitable. TMS monetary aggregates are preferable aggregates M1, M2, M3, because it counted some of the cash items twice, unlike M1, M2, M3, and therefore more accurately reflects the evolution in monetary economics. The aim of this work is based on established theory of money, count the real money supply (TMS1, TMS2) and investigate its characteristics and relationship with respect to selected economic indicators, which are: the monetary aggregate M2, the consumer price index (CPI), industrial producer price index (PPI), the discount rate, two-week repo rate, index of the Prague Stock Exchange (PX), the total volume of loans. Confrontation between TMS1 and TMS2 with selected economic indicators, can lead to a more accurate understanding of the causes of changes in the economy over the economic cycle. The theoretical part is to define the concept of money, creation, development, development of the banking system; commodity mode and paper (FIAT) money. The analytical part will try to uncover hidden phenomena and causal relationships between the real money supply and the development of the economy. The work is based on the methodology of the Austrian School of Economics, whose praxeologie seems to me the most because of its clarity and consistency. Without this theory, we could not understand the question: What else is money and what is not?
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The Phenomenon of Deflation - Is It Really a Negative Effect?
Braunová, Veronika ; Munzi, Tomáš (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
The bachelor thesis investigates two divergences of opinion on the problem of deflation and tends to the side of Austrian economic school which deals with original conception. Deflation according to them means drastic decline of money supply or volume of expenditures in the economy. By disagreement with the modern concept of deflation are displaced the most famous myths connected with deflation (for example, increase in unemployment rate). Deflation is divided in several types, whereas in negative sense can be comprehended only one of them. Next is proved the inefficiency of implementing antideflationary policy which should fight against the deflation and restore inflation in economy. On the basis of research on deflation during The Great Depression was found to be deflation only a consequence of the crisis, not causation. As the causation was determined regulation of market during the period of the presidency of Hoover and Roosevelt. In conclusion new knowledge was used for the explanation of current financial crisis from which was indicted government and central banks.
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